Some Bracket Advice

Thursday and Friday of this week, which have the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament, are two of my favorite days of the year. Basketball starts at noon and goes late into the night almost without stopping. It's great if you are a college basketball fan and terrible if you own a business that wants to get any work done. In a study that I just made up, it was estimated that 80 million brackets are going to be filled out before the games tip off Thursday afternoon and a third of those will be done by people that have not watched a minute of the college basketball this year. With those people in mind, here are some things to think about when filling out your brackets in the next couple of days. (You should only do one, by the way. I hate people who have 8 brackets and 6 different champions. Grow a spine, make a decision and stick to it.)

-Don't second guess. Once you have filled out your brackets, turn off ESPN for the next 3 days. They are just going to have 'expert' after 'expert' on there telling you why their picks are better than yours and causing you to go back and forth before talking yourself into Butler making a Final Four run. Just go with your first instincts. I'd rather be wrong on my own then have my bracket destroyed because Jay Bilas talked me out having so many Big East teams.

-When in doubt, go with conference strength. Just remember that a difficult conference schedule can go a long way in building a team for the postseason. Think about this: Georgetown, which is a Top-25 team and a three-seed in their NCAA bracket, was the eighth seed in the Big East tournament. That was a stacked conference. Once those guys get away from each other, they could start wreaking havoc on the rest of the field. So, if you're hesitating about a team one way or another fall back to their conference. I feel like this year it breaks down as follows: Pac-10 < Atlantic 10 < SEC < ACC < Big 10 < Big 12 < Big East. Probably why four of my Elite Eight are Big East teams. And everyone can talk about the easy draw Duke got, but I won't be shocked if they don't survive the opening weekend.

-Don't worry about the last week. People always seem to freak out about conference tournament upsets. Well, these teams are playing for at least a second (if not a third) time and they saw each other last year as well. Coaches on both sides get paid to learn things from past games, so I would hope they would play better. I'm not worried just because Villanova went out earlier than expected.

-Respect the seniors. Nothing motivates players like knowing this is their last shot. In a year in which there are no great teams it always happens that a senior-laden mid-major school pulls some upsets and makes it deeper than expected. My pick this year? Siena. As a corollary, watch out for the team with the one-and-done Super Freshman. Not only do they not really know how to close out games yet, but they don't actually care how they do because they have no school pride - they just don't want to get hurt and screw up their draft status.

-Beware the "Bracket of Death." Every year there is one bracket that is stupidly loaded while others are easy. This year the super-loaded bracket is the Midwest. Let's look at the top 6 seeds, shall we?

1. Kansas - #1 overall team in the land.
2. Ohio State - Features the best player in the tournament, could have been a higher seed if he wasn't hurt mid-year.
3. Georgetown - Hardest schedule in the nation in the hardest conference. They have the experience to run with anyone.
4. Maryland - Hottest team in the ACC, great shooters.
5. Michigan State - Started the year as a top-ranked team before they were wiped out with injuries. Tournament Finalists last year, very-well coached.
6. Tennessee - Owns wins this year over Kentucky and Kansas, both ranked #1 at the time.

That is a hell of a group. I think Kansas is the best team this year, but they could lose to any of those other high seeds. Even if they do survive the bracket they're going to be a lot more worn-down than any of the other Final Four teams.

-When it doesn't matter, pick the upset. The league I am in gives out more points if you correctly pick a lower seed winning a game. If neither team in a particular match up could win the next round then you should pick the upset. If you are right you look like a genius and if you are wrong you haven't destroyed your bracket.

-Forget everything else, flip a coin. As it turns out, no one knows much about who is actually going to win. Flipping a coin is as accurate as agonizing over every decision.

*On a completely unrelated note, "boo" to CBS for replacing Luther Vandross's version of "One Shining Moment" with a rendition done by Jennifer Hudson. Is nothing sacred to you people?