My Super Bowl Preview

Well, it is finally Super Bowl Sunday. With two of the NFL's most popular teams playing each other, this year's game is expected to be the most-watch television program ever. That is not surprising since football is America's game and with a potential lockout looming we might not get football until October, so people need to get their fix while the getting is good. Even if people don't like either team they will still watch for the commercials so they aren't left out of the water cooler talk at work on Monday. Now, since every on TV seems to have an opinion, here's mine.

The Packers will win if... Aaron Rodgers can stay upright. Like every quarterback in the world, Rodgers plays much better when he can set his feet and look through his progressions. Therefore, even though he's played this season at a very high level, he can be beaten like every other quarterback in the history of ever by getting in his face and making him uncomfortable. The Packers line needs to keep him healthy and give him some time (Rodgers could help them out by trying to fake-audible and get as much information as he can from his pre-snap reads). The last time these teams played the Packers had success when they spread out the Steelers by going five-wide and then running quick pass routes. The Patriots showed earlier this year that the formula still works, so expect to see that formation a lot. I'm not saying that the Packers should abandon the running game altogether, but any big runs that get broken off should be considered a bonus. They are only going as far as Rodgers and his receivers on that fast track can take them. That's not to say the defense won't be a factor, because they have a very under-rated secondary. If the Packers linebackers can get to Roethlisberger and actually bring him to the ground (easier said than done), then that secondary can try and make a play for the ball, because Ben is good for one ill-advised throw a game. Turnovers are going to be huge in this game.

The Steelers will win if... They can run the ball and keep Aaron Rodgers on the sidelines. The best way to win a game against a hot quarterback is to burn as much clock as you can and limit the number of possession the offense has. Now, with their starting center missing and facing a beast of a defensive tackle, the Steelers could have some trouble getting the running game going, but that isn't a problem as long as they have a quarterback like Roethlisberger who has a history of converting third-and-longs. I think that running game will be there late when they need it to salt the game away. And you know, with two weeks to game plan, the Steelers' defensive coaching have cooked up some exotic blitz packages to confuse Aaron Rodgers. Plus, they are going against an undrafted free-agent running back so it is safe to assume those Pittsburgh linebackers are going to fight to strip the ball out on every run. Like I said, turnovers are going to be huge in this game and I expect the Steelers to force more of them.

My Prediction is... With two weeks to form an opinion on the game, I have reached the following conclusion - I have no idea what is going to happen. This are two extremely evenly-matched teams and I wouldn't be surprised to see either team win. Ultimately, I'm picking the Steelers based on the fact that they were in the tougher conference and face better competition the entire season. (This is the same logic I use in the World Series, where I usually expect the American League team to win.) Plus, I feel like the Steelers have the better running game and the more active defense so I wouldn't be surprised if there were a couple of defensive scores. And while I'm not usually a big fan of reasoning like "they've been here before," for many Steelers this is their third Super Bowl, so they are very comfortable. All week we've heard reports of Steelers going to strip clubs and piano bars while the Packers are reportedly sitting in their rooms watching extra tape. That makes me wonder if the Packers are approaching the "thinking too much" area. Lastly, I looked at the coaching match-up and I have a confidence in Mike Tomlin that just isn't there with Mike McCarthy. With all that in mind I'm picking the Steelers to win, 27-17.