This Time They Mean It

One of the best books I read in the last few years was "The War For Late Night." Written by New York Times media columnist Bill Carter, the book documents the behind-the-scenes chaos that was going on in 2010 as NBC attempted to remove Jay Leno as host of "The Tonight Show" and replace him with Conan O'Brien. For those of you who don't remember, it didn't go well because Leno never wanted to retire and actually saw a rating resurgence after the announcement, so NBC was afraid he would bolt for another network and be competition. In an effort to keep him at NBC they put Leno at 10 o'clock, effectively cutting O'Brien's legs out from underneath him. When that didn't work for anyone the network wanted to have Leno do a show at 11:30 and push Conan's show back an half-hour, which eventually caused O'Brien to quit. After only 6 months Leno returned to the "Tonight Show" and Conan eventually found his way over to TBS, while most of the NBC executives who oversaw this shit show were fired. Really, no one came out of it looking particularly good, which is why yesterday's announcement that Jimmy Fallon is being elevated from host of "The Late Show" to host of "The Tonight Show" following next February's Olympics is being met with skepticism. Leno is still at the top of the ratings and has given no indications he is any more enthusiastic about the plan this time around. The good news is that the only thing America loves more than drama is getting to watch it a second time.

I've said this before, but I find all this squabbling over late night talk show jobs really disproportionate to how relevant the shows are. I feel like we all find the bickering interesting, but not interesting enough to watch Leno, Letterman or Kimmel on a regular basis. While these kind of chat shows may have held a lot of cultural importance year ago, these days there are simply too many other entertainment options at that time of night to make it worth it. Also, I question just how "entertaining" they really are. I often find the interview segments of a show the most annoying part and after the first 10 minutes that is all these show consist of. Just star after star coming on to plug I movie I have no desire to see while trying not to do anything too shocking. Beyond all that, television (no matter what time the show airs), is increasingly moving online, which means that if something of note does actually happen I don't need to be there to see it because it will be all over the internet tomorrow. In some ways that is what may doom Fallon before he starts - he does some of his best work for the web, which negates the need to watch his show. I wonder if most people even know what time he is current show is on.

My point is that these executives are making all these moves in a desperate attempt to attract an audience which probably doesn't exist. If you need more proof of that, just ponder this - Leno is being let go because the network doesn't think he brings in enough of the young viewers, specifically the coveted 18-45 demographic. This is evidenced by the fact the average of the people watching his show is 58 (same as Letterman, in case you were wondering). In contrast the average age of Jimmy Kimmel's audience, whose good ratings are being pointed to as the main reason NBC felt the need to replace Leno because Kimmel 'gets' the younger viewers, is 53. I know you need a lot of people to shift a demographic by that many years, but who is to say all those people aren't 51? Either way, 53 is not exactly the youth movement I was expecting. (Ironically, Conan has the lowest median viewer age at 33.) That tells me it's not a host problem, it's a generational problem with the format. If NBC really wants to do something to bring in a younger audience what they need to do is come up with an alternative at that hour, rather than just more of the same with a different face behind the microphone.

And if this mystical demographic of teenagers who can't wait to hear Morgan Freeman talk about his new movies does exist, I'm pretty sure they already made their choice and won't be swayed from it. I've noticed people are very particular about their late night host and will not switch once they make their choice. Personally, I question if Fallon has been around long enough to build that loyal base. Conan O'Brien may not have worked for middle America at 11:30, but it wasn't due to lack of loyalty from his fans who watched him for 16 years at 12:30 and happily followed him to TBS. (Wildly unrelated prediction - O'Brien is signed at TBS through 2015. I say he takes over for Letterman after that). But then there are people like me, because as much as I liked Conan at 12:30, I'm a "Daily Show" guy to the core and stuck with them when Conan started his 11 PM show. It's all about options. This is why I am convinced Leno will have a new show as soon as his time at NBC comes to an end. There has to be a network out there who will see the numbers he is still pulling in, the money the advertisers are still happy to pay and be willing give him his own show. (Contrary to speculation, I doubt it will be be FOX. I don't see them getting into the late-night game and even if they did Leno is too much of a contrast to the rest of their programming.) So, all yesterday's announcement really did was spark another round of musical chairs, only everyone gets a seat it's just a matter of which table they end up at. If nothing else we should be able to get another good book out of all of this.