My NBA Finals Guess

I'm not going to lie to you - despite my hope for it, I did not think I would be writing about the Celtics in the NBA Finals this year. They seemed too old, too slow and too dysfunctional to pull off a prolonged playoff run. Guess that just shows how much I know. Still, that shouldn't stop you from reading on. After a very long break following the Conference Finals, the NBA Finals finally start up tonight. Here's how I see it breaking down:

The Lakers are playing very well right now. After a first round series that went about a game longer than it should have against Oklahoma City, they've been rolling. Thanks to the spacing out of the first three rounds, Kobe Bryant appears to be coming around from a season's worth of minor, nagging injuries and is playing his best basketball of the season. Lamar Odom is paying attention, Derek Fisher is also benefiting from the long time between games, Ron Artest is keeping the voices in his head at bay and Pau Gasol is chugging along with his typical consistent numbers. They have every right to be confident. Their only real injury concern is with Andrew Bynum's knee and, let's be honest with each other, if they planned to lean heavily on Andrew Bynum then they're in more trouble than he can help them get out of.

As for the Celtics, they're actually walking a little more of a razor's edge with injuries. After Garnett spent the last month of the season getting healthy, a physical two rounds of the playoffs have him limping a little. Rasheed Wallace is still dealing with back spasms and Rajon Rondo has some back and leg issues of his own. Another thing to think about: you know Kendrick Perkins will pick up a tech at some point and the Celtics will be without their starting center for at least one game. (I love Perk's game, but the next time he admits he committed a foul will be the first time and all it's going to take is a half-shove by some Laker bench player before the refs call a double tech. It's inevitable.) But, despite all that they've managed to slow down three of the best scorers in the league and have gotten back to defense being their calling card. As long as Ray Allen and Paul Pierce can stay in Kobe's face they have no reason to fear he will be able to win this series on his own.

Ultimately I went with their playoff opponents to pick who I thought was going to win. While the Celtics had to go through very good Cleveland and Orlando teams to get to the Finals, the Lakers lucked out by having to face a banged-up Utah team and a Phoenix team that doesn't have a lot of size to throw at you and just wants to run up the score instead of play defense. I think the Celtics big men will be able to control the boards and push Gasol and Odom around. Kobe is going to have to work for every single shot and Derek Fisher will have to choose between guarding Rondo or chasing Ray Allen around screens all night. The Lakers can talk all they want about wanting to get revenge for 2008's Finals loss, but it's one thing to say you're tougher - it's another to actually be tougher. If you're looking to Ron Artest to be you're emotional defensive leader then you have chosen poorly. I expect mostly close games, Tony Allen to make me throw things at my TV repeatedly and Glen Davis to have a couple bone-headed plays.... but I also think the Celtics are winning the series in six games.