A Gaffe Riot

I've been sitting back these last few days and watched with a slight level of amusement as Republican Presidential Nominee Mitt Romney has been trying to distance himself from comments made at a fundraising dinner back in May in which he said that 47% of Americans don't pay any income taxes and will never vote for him because they are dependent on the government and think President Obama will keep the money flowing to them. While the figure Romney mentioned may be technically correct, like all comments made in an election year, they require some context - most of that 47% is made up of the elderly, children, soldiers who are currently deployed and the working poor. I don't think anyone would argue that there aren't people out there who abuse the system, but to make it sound like half of the country is doing it isn't exactly Presidential. Many pundits are saying that this comment could be the fatal blow for a Romney campaign which was already experiencing some sagging poll numbers. This is the part where I would like to point out to the pundits of the world that it isn't close to the end for Romney, because he wasn't totally wrong. Not about 47% of Americans not paying income taxes, but about the fact that they were never going to vote for him anyway.

For people whose job it is to talk about politics for a living, it never fails to stun me how often these pundits forget that the election is about the voters more than it is about the candidate and many of those voters are firmly entrenched in their political party no matter what. The number of people willing to vote for the better candidate, regardless of political party, are in a severe minority. Most voters are just going to stick to whichever party they have been voting for the majority of their lives, despite the fact that if they sat down and went issue-by-issue with their beliefs many of them would find they actually line up more with the other side of the aisle. It doesn't matter - for some of these people voting for a different political party would be like fighting muscle memory and it would take an act on the level of punching a baby on TV to get them to vote for the other guy. That is why before the candidates are even decided the people making predictions can call certain states in their favor. What all this means is that it doesn't matter how many 'gaffes' they make, politicians are still going to garner a healthy percentage of the final tally.

If you don't believe me, check out the latest polling numbers in Missouri, an historically conservative state, where Todd Akin is still in the running for their Senate seat despite saying that he didn't believe woman could get pregnant during "legitimate rape" because women's bodies were equipped with ways to fend it off. You would think a comment that idiotic and insensitive would kill any chances of winning, but he only lost 10 points in the polls after he said that and now he appears to be mounting a comeback. Even in the sketchy world of political polls, where numbers not only come with a margin of error but can be easily manipulated by how questions are phrased and who is asked to participate, Akin's ability to rebound appears to be genuine. [Sidebar: Seriously, Missouri??? Aren't you guys supposed to be the "Show Me" state? Because I believe Akin has shown himself to be unqualified to be a US Senator.] If that guy's political career wasn't immediately shut down than Romney will have no problem bouncing back from something as relatively minor as this.

The point is that you can say pretty much as many stupid things as you wish and as long as you have enough money to pump out commercials appealing to your party's base you will still have a chance to come back and win. So every can have their fun with the video, but it doesn't come close to signaling the end of Romney's run for the White House. If you think about it, all he was really saying was what everyone in that room (who paid $50,000 to hear Romney speak), was already thinking. I'm sure there are plenty more people out there who agree with Romney and just couldn't afford the lunch. He certainly didn't lose one Republican vote. That is why I fully expect him to close the gap the President has opened up between now and November, leading to people crowing about how he is the comeback kid. In today's political climate all it will take is someone to take a quote from the President out of context and the shoe will be on the other foot. The only thing this video clip actually decided is that I really wish November would hurry up and get here so we can be done with this stuff.