My Oscar Predictions

So, the Oscars are this Sunday and since America has a pretty healthy gambling problem that means it is time for people to start picking their winners and filling out office pools. Unfortunately, I failed in my quest to see most of the films nominated in the Best Picture category. However, that will not stop me from making a few guesses anyway. Actually, the way I look at it, the fact I didn't see certain movies should tell me all I need to know about them. If a film is truly the best its industry has to offer that year, shouldn't everyone, especially people like me who really enjoy a good movie, be dying to see it? If a movie isn't compelling enough for me to make time to get to the theater and see it, can it really be the best picture of the year? I say no. Which means Beasts of the Southern Wild is getting nothing this year. Anyway, here are the guesses as to who I think will win, not necessarily who I think should win.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Amour, Michael Haneke
Django Unchained, Quentin Tarantino
Flight, John Gatins
Moonrise Kingdom, Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola
Zero Dark Thirty, Mark Boal

My Guess: Moonrise Kingdom. People tend to love Wes Anderson or totally hate him and while I don't think he is the genius most people want to portray him as, I certainly think his script was the best one of this particular bunch. Django was too much like every other Tarantino movie before it and since the most memorable scene in Flight was the CGI -heavy moment when the plane crashed it is hard to pick that as the best script. Zero Dark Thirty should win, but I think the laughable controversy about torture will probably prevent it from taking any awards home. There is a chance this will go for Amour because it is the kind of sentimental crap the Academy loves, but I'm sticking with Moonrise Kingdom.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Argo, Chris Terrio.
Beasts of the Southern Wild, Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin.
Life of Pi, David Magee
Lincoln, Tony Kushner
Silver Linings Playbook, David O. Russell

My Guess: Life of Pi. What I have noticed about this award in the last couple of years is that it has nothing to do with the quality of the movie and everything to do with how popular the story it was adapted from is. Lincoln may have the best story, but considering how many sources they have to pull it from, that does take some of the challenge out of it and I think the Hollywood-izing of the ending of Argo, adding extra drama that didn't need to be there, will be what stops it from taking home a trophy.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

My Guess: It's Hathaway. I mean, she is as close to a lock as you will see all show. Sally Field is the only one who has an outside chance of pulling off the upset, but since she hasn't even been seen this award season, I would say those chances are remote at best. I'm fine with Hathaway winning, because she was very good in Les Miserables, but I just hope she doesn't keep doing the Taylor Swift "What? Me?" routine I've seen as she pulls in award after award. You're the favorite and that's fine - just don't be fake humble, because that is actually worse than being arrogant.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

My Guess: Tommy Lee Jones. I have to be honest, anyone but De Niro would be fine with me for this one. Seriously, giving De Niro an award for this role, in which he is a shell of his former self, would essentially be giving him an award for finally appearing in a movie that doesn't suck. I don't think Arkin was in Argo enough to actually be supportive, but at least he was good when he was on screen. Waltz may have been the best of this group, but I just don't see Django as an Oscar-worthy movie. Since no one who saw The Master enjoyed it, that leaves us with Tommy Lee Jones. Hopefully he'll smile at least once during his speech.

BEST ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Quvenzhané Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible

My Guess: Emmanuelle Riva. I'm going with the upset on this one. Everyone is saying the award is Lawrence's to lose, but the Academy loves throwing at least one curveball at us during the ceremony and this seems like the best spot for it. Riva, who will turn 86 the day of the Academy Awards, had never before been nominated and she plays a dying character in foreign film. Honestly, the only way the self-important Academy would have loved her role more would have been if she was a lesbian. Plus, Lawrence is 22 and will have plenty of time to get nominated again. My vote would have been for Chastain, but I will continue to pick the upset.

BEST ACTOR
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Denzel Washington, Flight

My Guess: Daniel Day-Lewis. Every now and again thinking is only going to get in your way - this is one of those times. Day-Lewis only makes a movie every two years, but every time he does he gets nominated for an Oscar. You add his reputation to a great role in a big movie and there is no reason to argue about this. Plus, I feel like actors who cut their teeth doing comedies like Cooper has have to do several serious roles before they are legitimate contenders, so he's out. As for the rest - I said in my original review that Jackman wasn't even the best Jean Val Jean I've ever heard, no one even knows why Phoenix's movie got so many nominations and Washington may only have been nominated because he's Denzel Washington. In retrospect this was not a very strong field.

BEST DIRECTOR
Michael Haneke, Amour
Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

My Guess: Spielberg. I honestly don't get this category. You would find more people who want to give the award to people who aren't even nominated than 80% of the people who are. With Affleck, Tarantino and Bigelow out, all the drama went with them. When a category is this much of a formality you just hope Steven will keep his speech short.

BEST PICTURE
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Before revealing my pick, can I just say how dickheaded I thought the Academy was to nominate nine movies when they could have nominated 10 and thrown something like The Dark Knight Rises into the mix? I know it probably wasn't the best movie of the year, but it made hundreds of millions of dollars and was probably better than a couple of these nominees. You don't have to give it any awards, but at least acknowledge it was a good movie. I think they the only reason they didn't is because they have a bias against super hero movies, even though the quality of sci-fi movies have increased exponentially over the last few years. If you ever needed proof as to just how out of touch Oscar voters are, this category could be exhibit A.

My Guess: Lincoln. Since Argo has been cleaning up at all the pre-Oscar award shows some people have predicted that bodes really well for its Oscar chances. Personally, I don't think that matters since the voting was done months ago. Because of that I look at the rest of the nominations and use how many it didn't get to make my pick. Also, there are parts of that movie which are light and I find the self-important voting members of the Academy (read: all of them), probably think this award should only go to movies which are all-serious, all the time. Again, Zero Dark Thirty was the best movie I saw this year, but every now and again people get an idea in their head and refuse to let it go. This year too many people hopped in the "this movie is pro-torture" bandwagon and there was no getting them off it. The good news is that while Lincoln may not be my choice, it is still a good movie and not something we will look back on with outrage, such as Shakespeare in Love instead of Saving Private Ryan. The Academy will never, and should never, live that one down.