Here We Go Again

I think everyone remembers the roller-coaster ride that was supposed to be Conan O'Brien's ascension to the chair as the host of "The Tonight Show" following NBC's forced retirement of host Jay Leno a few years ago. For those of you who don't remember, NBC gave Leno a five-year head's-up that he was out the door due to poor ratings. However, five years later Leno's rating had significantly improved and the network was afraid he was going to end up on another network and crush Conan. So, instead they gave Leno a show at 10 o'clock which was a ratings disaster and effectively killed any chance Conan had to step out of his shadow. After a couple of failed attempt to move Conan back to midnight he quit "The Tonight Show" and landed at TBS. Leno went back where he started, only now his reputation had taken a big hit as he was seen as a backstabber in the comedy community and everyone who oversaw this shit-show at NBC was eventually fired, as David Letterman sat in the corner firing spitballs at them the entire time. So, basically no one came out of this looking any better, but at least we got a very good book out of it - "The War for Late Night." I hope everyone likes sequels, because it could be happening again.

Earlier in the day a story was leaked to the press that NBC is again planning for Leno to give up "The Tonight Show" when his contract expires in 2014. And again they are planning to elevate the man currently hosting "Late Night" to that job, only this time that man is Jimmy Fallon. (I have no comment on how Fallon will do with an earlier time-slot because I never stay awake long enough to watch his show, so I really don't know how it is. I'm told it is quite good, but perhaps he should talk to Conan about how to keep doing all the things which made him successful when everyone wants to change those bits to appeal to a wider audience. Honestly, is there that much of a difference between the 11:35 and 12:35 audiences?) On paper this plan makes a lot of sense, but you have to wonder why they are leaking this idea so early. I know they aren't totally repeating their mistakes because it is only 2 years in the future instead of 5, but my guess is if Leno is still drawing good numbers at that time the people who advertise with the show won't want anything to change. (I'm sure some of them are already complaining.) If that happens it will be the same scenario all over again. Seriously, just keep your mouth shut until that date get closer and there is actually something to announce.

What I find interesting are all the other factors which could mean this time all this talk might actually happen. First off, Letterman's deal over at CBS expires at the same time. While I have never understood the hero worship of Dave, there is no doubting his popularity. NBC could be a lot more willing to take a ratings hit if Fallon is asked to go against someone like a Craig Ferguson, who may also be changing to an earlier audience. Rather than fans automatically switching from the new guy to the guy who has been there forever everyone would be on equal footing. The big wildcard in all of this is Jimmy Kimmel, who is jumping into the fray by moving his show from midnight to 11:35 starting in a couple weeks. If he takes significant numbers away from Leno than the decision to remove Jay gets much easier, because you can sell advertisers on Fallon appealing to a younger demographic. On top of all that NBC no longer has to fear Leno going to another network. CBS would never take him, ABC seems very happy with Kimmel and if Fox didn't give a show to Conan when they had the chance a few years ago they aren't going to take the plunge into the late-night talk show game now. If the best deal Conan could get was on TBS than there is almost no chance Fallon would find himself competing with Leno.

What is really weird is how fascinating I find all of this considering I don't actually watch any of these shows. You really don't need to - the guests never say anything interesting and if there are any amazing moments from the rest of the show they are put on the web by the next afternoon. Seriously, unless Jon Stewart becomes involved (unlikely, though I wouldn't rule out Colbert), a host switch won't change my viewing routine even a little. I can only assume this interest in how this all finally shakes out comes from the same place that makes me really intrigued as to how baseball teams decide to build their rosters during the offseason even though I know I am going to watch about 25 baseball games all year. I pay attention more because I think about the decisions I would make if it were my network. Just like guys love fantasy football because it gives us the chance to play GM, the thought of being in charge of programming for a major network is quite appealing. Given my affinity for picking which shows are going to be cancelled and in which order, putting me in charge for a couple months wouldn't be the worst idea NBC ever had - that would be green-lighting "Animal Practice". Considering those same sharp minds are the ones handling this succession plan I think the only thing we can really look forward to is another good book in a couple of years.