My Oscar Predictions

Sure, the award ceremony isn't for a another month but I'm likely to forget about doing this if I don't get to it now. Better to get my predictions out of the way than think of it that Sunday morning. Besides, when it comes to awards show predictions (as with Hall of Fame voting) your first instincts are usually the right ones - no need to agonize over the decision. Much like the people voting, I won't let a little thing like not having seen all the movies get in the way of my offering up opinions about them. Also, keep in mind this is not who I would pick, just who I think will win.

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
"The Descendants," Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash
"Hugo," John Logan
"The Ides of March," George Clooney & Grant Heslov and Beau Willimon
"Moneyball," Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin. Story by Stan Chervin
"Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy," Screenplay by Bridget O'Connor & Peter Straughan

Winner: "The Descendants"
Almost went with "Moneyball" given how much people love movies adapted from Michael Lewis books and screenplays written by Aaron Sorkin. That combo feels almost unbeatable. However, I feel like this is one of those years where "The Descendants" would clean up if it wasn't for "The Artist". They aren't going to give it best picture, so they'll give it every award that doesn't have the other movie in the running.

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
"The Artist," Michel Hazanavicius
"Bridesmaids," Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig
"Margin Call," J.C. Chandor
"Midnight in Paris," Woody Allen
"A Separation," Asghar Farhadi

Winner: "Bridesmaids"
Look, I refuse to think people are so silly as to give a silent movie an award for writing. Hollywood is dumb, but they aren't that dumb. Besides, this gives the voters a chance to pat themselves on the back for giving an award to women. Nothing makes Hollywood happier than having a chance to act as though they should be praised for being progressive, even though their tone about it makes the entire thing seem rather condescending. Yes, you actually gave it to the most deserving person regardless of gender or race. If this was the 1950s you could all be very proud of yourself.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
"A Cat in Paris," Alain Gagnol and Jean-Loup Felicioli
"Chico & Rita," Fernando Trueba and Javier Mariscal
"Kung Fu Panda 2," Jennifer Yuh Nelson
"Puss in Boots," Chris Miller
"Rango," Gore Verbinski

Winner: "Puss in Boots"
Oof, this category sucks. I've never even heard of two of these movies. Let's just move on.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Bérénice Bejo, "The Artist"
Jessica Chastain, "The Help"
Melissa McCarthy, "Bridesmaids"
Janet McTeer, "Albert Nobbs"
Octavia Spencer, "The Help"

Winner: Octavia Spencer
See? Here we go again. "We gave an award to a black woman. We've only done that five times in history. Everyone, look how liberal we are!" This will lead to many stories about how this is an historic night for women in film as if women making movies is somehow a novelty. At least I can watch with amusement as all the women in my life heads collectively explode.

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kenneth Branagh, "My Week with Marilyn"
Jonah Hill, "Moneyball"
Nick Nolte, "Warrior"
Christopher Plummer, "Beginners"
Max von Sydow, "Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close"

Winner: Jonah Hill
Ok, just kidding. That pick is more just what I really want to happen. I just want the kid who we all first saw as an angry EBay customer in "40 Year-Old Virgin" to be an Oscar winner. I always knew he was bound for greatness. But, I'm sure it will go to Christopher Plummer for a movie 8 people saw, because he is playing the role of a dying gay man. If you play a dying gay man, you should start clearing a spot on your mantle for the Oscar.

LEAD ACTRESS
Glenn Close, "Albert Nobbs"
Viola Davis, "The Help"
Rooney Mara, "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
Meryl Streep, "The Iron Lady"
Michelle Williams, "My Week With Marilyn"

Winner: Meryl Streep
I mean, why do they even pretend this is an actual category anymore? If Meryl Streep puts out anything in the calendar year she is getting nominated for an Oscar, regardless of the project. You put her in a biopic about a controversial figure? That race is over before it started. The only way this goes to another actress is if people thinks she gets nominated too much (this is her 17th nomination) to vote for her, like when Karl Malone won NBA MVP over Jordan.

LEAD ACTOR
Demián Bichir, "A Better Life"
George Clooney, "The Descendants"
Jean Dujardin, "The Artist"
Gary Oldman, "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy "
Brad Pitt, "Moneyball"

Winner: Jean Dujardin
I'm not planning to see "The Artist" but everyone keeps saying it is pretty good. And, if you can carry an entire movie without saying a word, you have to be very good at what you do.

BEST DIRECTOR
Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist"
Alexander Payne, "The Descendants"
Martin Scorsese, "Hugo"
Woody Allen, "Midnight in Paris"
Terrence Malick, "The Tree of Life"

Winner: Michel Hazanavicius
Again, "The Artist" is winning the night. But, at least you can justify this one because it's a very delicate balancing act to get people to act in a silent movie without over-acting. I figure that takes talent. Besides, like I'm not going to pick the half-Lithuanian guy?

BEST PICTURE
"The Artist," Thomas Langmann, producer
"The Descendants," Jim Burke, Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor, producers
"Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close," Scott Rudin, producer
"The Help," Brunson Green, Chris Columbus and Michael Barnathan, producers
"Hugo," Graham King and Martin Scorsese, producers
"Midnight in Paris," Letty Aronson and Stephen Tenenbaum, producers
"Moneyball," Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz and Brad Pitt, producers
"The Tree of Life," Nominees to be determined
"War Horse," Steven Spielberg and Kathleen Kennedy, producers

Winner: "The Artist"
Some years there is just a critical juggernaut that everyone else is powerless to stop. And while award shows never seem to want to reward the popcorn-blockbusters that everyone likes and which make a ton of money, they are very quick to give statues to the movies which are seen as plucky, critically-acclaimed underdogs. I guess that telling themselves it is about the best product and not about which movie made the most money is how they can sleep at night after going to a show where the women wear dresses worth thousands of dollars and the gift basket has more electronics in it than most people could afford to buy with a month's salary. Also, let's be honest, it is not like this is a very strong field. Years like this make you wonder why they felt the need to expand to 10 movies for this category, when they could only come up with 9 movies to nominate. Frankly, not a good year for movies. They should go back and retroactively give the Oscar to "Saving Private Ryan" to right the wrong.

So, those are my best guesses. The show is at the end of February if you feel like checking back to see how I did. I'll be honest, I'll likely forget to watch the show that night, as there is a Celtics game at the same time. (It's against the Raptors. They might actually win.) Just another reason I had to get these done now.