The Case for the Cardinals
They are riding an unbelievable wave of momentum right now. They are playing with a confidence that we've haven't seen from this organization since they moved to the desert. Larry Fitzgerald is playing on another level right now and even if the Steelers manage to take him out of the game (easier said than done) then the Cardinals still have enough weapons to be effective on offense. Also, if Pittsburgh takes away their running game they won't care, because they basically didn't use it during the regular season and therefore know how to win without it. They are a tough match-up for the Steelers because the way to beat a team with a good linebacking core is to spread the field, go four wide and make those linebackers sit on the sidelines. With Fitzgerald, Boldin, Breaston and even Urban or Doucet they can spread the field better than most. Also, I'm not convinced of the Steelers secondary. Making Joe Flacco look like a rookie was about three weeks over-due and not that impressive considering they had two earlier meeting worth of film on him to figure out his weaknesses. This quarterback is big game tested and capable of handling a blitz in his face. They have to feel like their playing with house money right now and will be loose before the game starts. A win wouldn't be a shock.
The Case for the Steelers
They are probably the better all-around team. And, since their fanbase travels so well, this will pretty much be a home game for them. While the Cardinals offense is more dynamic than Pittsburgh's, the Steelers can boast the much stronger defense which more than makes up the difference. And the best way to attack a 3-4 base is up the seams with a tight end, and the Cardinals don't have a playmaker there. Roethlisberger is big and can stand in to take a hit so trying to bring him down with a swipe isn't going to cut it. Also, he has the unique perspective of being a Super Bowl winning quarterback and having a chip on his shoulder, since he played so poorly in Super Bowl XL. They can pound the ball on the run and you've got to think not playing on the chewed-up Heinz Field grass will help Willie Parker move better than he has the entire playoffs. A fast track will also help James Harrison get into the backfield before Kurt Warner knows he is coming. Plus, they've spent two weeks hearing everyone slowly talk themselves into the Cardinals and therefore will be looking to play the disrespect card.
The Pick
When it comes down to picking games, I always go with the first instinct. Thinking too much can only get in the way. Now, I'll be rooting for the Cardinals, but that's only because I love an upset when it's not my team getting upset. Yes, the coaches on the Cardinals are familiar with Pittsburgh's players - but that's a two-way street and thus I can't give either team the advantage there. To me the Cardinals have a little too much of a "Just happy to be here" vibe going on. Plus, I feel that the AFC is the superior conference. By having to go through the likes of San Diego (the last team that everyone wrote off until they got hot at the right time) and Baltimore (better defense than what they'll face tonight), I think the Steelers are the more battle-tested team. While the thought of a bang-up Hines Ward makes me a little hesitant, if he can gut it out and play then it will be a huge boost to the Steelers. I expect the Cardinals to get off a trick play or two and keep the game interested, but at the end of the night I expect to see Pittsburgh holding the Lombardi Trophy. A little more spaced out than people are expecting - I'm going with Pittsburgh 31, Cardinals 21.
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